The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook on September 9. It forecasts the Brent crude oil spot price to average around $90 per barrel in the second half of 2026, as global inventories continue to decline and Middle East oil exports remain constrained.
The EIA reports that Brent averaged $91 per barrel in August, up $7 from July. Its outlook expects production and trade flows from the Middle East to recover gradually, while warning that shipping conditions and short-term prices may remain volatile. The agency projects Brent to average $74 per barrel in 2027 as output increases and inventories rebuild.
For buyers of refined products, the report also highlights a tight distillate market. EIA expects U.S. distillate inventories to remain low and global distillate production to stay below last year’s levels in the coming months. Actual prices and availability will depend on product specifications, loading location, freight, timing and market conditions.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 9, 2026: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
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